About Base Demand Forecast Index

The Base Forecast Index is mandatory for any field targeted for use in demand forecasting. This value, a floating point number between 1 and 10, is a measure of how the total and density for that field affects demand for transit.

An example is vehicle ownership. For example, if there were more vehicles per household, there will be less demand for public transit. Households without a vehicle would have a base index of 10, that is, the residents would be more likely to use transit. Conversely, households with two vehicles would have a low base index (for example, 1 or 0), that is, the residents would be unlikely to use transit.

The following table shows an example of the Base Demand Forecast Index assigned for each of the demographic data fields.
Field Name Description Base Demand Forecast Index

NOVEHICL

Households with no vehicle 10
VEHICL_1 Households with one vehicle 6
VEHICL_2 Households with two vehicles 2
VEHICHG2 Households with greater than 2 vehicles 0

Types of Demand Forecast

The two types of demand forecast are based on total and density. The demand forecast based on total is calculated by multiplying the Demand Forecast Index times the total for a particular field. The demand forecast based on density is calculated by multiplying the density of a particular field times the Demand Forecast Index for that field and is more relevant for most analyses.

The following table shows the results of a particular study area of 4.16 square miles.
Field Name BDF* Total Per Square Mile DF** (Total) DF** (Density)

NOVEHICL

10 2000 481 20000 4810
VEHICL_1 6 3000 721 18000 4326
VEHICL_2 2 1000 240 2000 480
Totals 40000 9616

* - Base Demand Forecast

** - Demand Forecast