About the Formula for Factoring Elastic Values
Factoring in elastic values of variables when performing demand forecasting can help determine future ridership.
Total Demand Forecast =
Base Demand Forecast +
Base Demand Forecast*Fare Level*Change In Fare Level)+
Base Demand Forecast*Service Frequency*Change In Service Frequency)+
Base Demand Forecast* Journey Duration *Change In Journey Duration)+
Base Demand Forecast* Reliability *Change In Reliability)+
Using the example shown in the previous sections, the following tables show what would be the
resultant demand forecast (if service frequency is increased by 50%):
| Vehicle | Base Index | Service Frequency Index | Change In Service | New Base Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NOVEHICL |
10 |
.2 | .5 | 10 + (10*.2*.5) = 11 |
| VEHICL_1 | 6 | .5 | .5 | 6 + (6*.5*.5) = 7.5 |
| VEHICL_2 | 2 | .75 | .5 | 2 + (2*.75*.5) = 2.75 |
| Data Field | BDF | Total | Per Square Mile | DF (Total) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
NOVEHICL |
11 | 2000 | 481 | 22000 |
| VEHICL_1 | 7.5 | 3000 | 721 | 22500 |
| VEHICL_2 | 2.7 | 1000 | 240 | 2700 |
| Totals | 47200* | |||
*Change in demand after increase in service frequency= (47200-40000)/40000*100 = an increase in demand of 18%